Also younger people would be at a complete loss. But I would expect that CVEP CEO Joe Wallace would tell me that most of you do not recognize the reference since you have similar tastes like his, meaning only listening to the Bee Gees YELLOW album (“I started a joke”) and Karen Carpenter (she used to wear YELLOW T-shirts lolzzz, Joe). This was a reference to the Jimi Hendrix song “Crosstown Traffic” which I thought people from my generation would remember. The title had now changed to: Cuz Darlin’ Can’t You See my Signals turn from Green to …
What about beyond?Ībout two weeks ago, I presented our Inland Empire Economic Report at Roberts Pavilion at Claremont McKenna College. But that only means the expansion will last until June 2019. I am quite certain that despite the very low positive GDP growth rate we will see for 2019:Q1, the current expansion will break the record for the longest post-World War II boom on record.
If you walked away from my presentation thinking that things don’t look that bad but that stories like that help sell magazines, you got the picture I was trying to paint. Geoff Colvin, a senior editor, mentioned various signals to look out for as predictors of an imminent downturn. In many ways, I was motivated by the title story in Fortune Magazine “The End is Near” in the August 2018 issue. Given the economic damage that the Coachella Valley suffered during the Great Recession of December 2007 – June 2009 and its aftermath, I thought it would be useful to walk you through the various threats that the financial press perceives – in order for you to form your own opinion.
MANFRED KEIL PROFESSIONAL
The title of the Economic Report at the Greater Palm Springs Economic Summit was “Don’t Panic: The ‘R’ Word Angst.”ĭifferent from previous years, I wanted to focus on the increased concern by some regarding an imminent recession: 60% of professional economists (these are the folks at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Barclay’s, etc.) surveyed by the Wall Street Journal forecast the next recession to start in 2020 by 2021, this number grows to 80%. The annual CVEP conference in Palm Springs was on November 8, 2018.
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